Many people believe they have strong intuitions, but I think that's largely a misconception. Generally, our intuitions aren't reliable, and there are only a few specific cases where they might be accurate. Let’s delve into what intuition really is. Often referred to as gut feelings, intuitions are quick mental processes that give us immediate feedback—good or bad. Do we experience these? Absolutely. For instance, our minds are wired to recognize the shape of snakes quickly, triggering fear without conscious thought. Birds have even more of these cells and exhibit an intuitive fear of snakes.
However, when we talk about gut intuition in everyday life, we're usually referring to our ability to make good decisions. We believe we can judge whether someone will be a good friend, a trustworthy romantic partner, or a reliable business associate upon first meeting them. But how accurate are these intuitions? They’re not entirely wrong or entirely right; they lie somewhere in between, but closer to zero.
Consider your close friends. How many did you predict would become significant from day one? Probably very few. Now think about all the people you've met and try to recall how many you initially thought would be good friends but turned out otherwise. Our current important relationships likely didn't stem from initial gut feelings; they evolved over time.
So under what conditions could we develop good intuition? It’s similar to AI or any learning system. Take basketball: you develop a sense of direction for your shots through repeated practice and feedback. This feedback loop helps refine your intuition over thousands of attempts.
In life, how often do we get such extensive practice and immediate feedback? Rarely. Evaluating a new home or a significant other involves limited experiences and delayed feedback. You don’t instantly know if a new home is perfect or if a relationship will last; it takes time.
Chess players develop intuition by seeing countless board configurations and outcomes, allowing them to sense future moves instinctively. This kind of intuition comes from extensive practice and feedback.
In summary, while we do have biological intuitions and can develop them through repeated practice and accurate feedback, these instances are rare. For most other situations, our gut feelings aren’t as reliable as we think. One of the best strategies is to rely less on intuition and think more critically about our decisions. Trusting our intuition less might not be fun, but it’s a wise decision strategy.
